Matrixport, a digital asset financial services platform, has published a report outlining six events that will shape Bitcoin’s near future. According to their forecast, Bitcoin could potentially reach $45,000 by the end of this year, and continue growing next year. The 'Santa Claus' rally may start at any moment if it has not already begun. Let's dig deeper into these six events:
Bitcoin ETF approval is anticipated by January 2024, with trading likely to begin in February or March
The growing consensus is that a spot bitcoin ETF will indeed receive approval. James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, estimates a 90% chance of approval by January 10. Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, believes that it is no longer a question of “if” but “when” for the Bitcoin ETF approval. He also anticipates that 2024 will be marked by significant institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Stablecoin issuer Circle is on track to be listed on the stock market as early as April
According to Bloomberg, the company is currently working with advisors to prepare it for the listing. It is not yet known what valuation Circle is targeting for its IPO, but it had a $9 billion valuation in its 2022 blank-check public offering attempt.
With rising interest rates, stablecoin issuers are turning into lucrative businesses and will likely attract significant investor interest. The IPO should draw more attention to not only Circle but also the entire cryptocurrency market from traditional investors.
FTX’s winning bid announcement is expected in December 2023, with the exchange likely to resume operations by mid-2024 and regain its top 3 status within a year
There is a good chance that FTX could rise from the ashes. Despite its ruined reputation, the exchange still maintains a sizable customer database, which is a valuable asset.
At a recent court hearing, restructuring expert Kevin Cofsky disclosed ongoing talks with potential investors. “Options include selling the entire exchange, including a valuable list of more than 9 million customers, or bringing in a partner to help restart the exchange. FTX is also mulling a reboot of the trading platform on its own,” Cofsky said.
Bitcoin halving is expected for April 2024
The main event anticipated for next year is the Bitcoin halving, which has historically been a reliable indicator of an impending bull market. Looking at past cycles, the market has experienced significant growth for at least 1-2 years following the halving event.
With a reduced supply of Bitcoin in the market and increasing institutional demand, there is a strong chance that the price could skyrocket in the upcoming year.
In the first quarter of 2024, Ethereum plans to roll out the IEP-4844 upgrade
EIP-4844 is seen as a major game changer for Ethereum, and importantly introduces proto-danksharding. This feature aims to reduce transaction fees and increase transaction throughput on the Ethereum blockchain.
With higher throughput, there is a likelihood of a surge in dApps on Ethereum, benefiting greatly from the improved scalability.
U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut, expected in mid-2024
Forbes reports that markets expect the Fed funds rate to drop by 1% to a range of 4-5% by the end of 2024. However, any decrease in rates will likely happen in the second half of 2024, starting around June or later.
This could greatly impact the cryptocurrency market, as lower interest rates usually make it less costly to hold assets like Bitcoin that don’t yield returns. Lower interest rates may also prompt investors to take more risks, which could significantly benefit the crypto market.
To sum up
Any one of these events could trigger a significant boost in the price of bitcoin. With all six incoming, we might finally find the answer to the question, 'Wen moon?'
